Virus now spreading in the community

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As cases of COVID-19 increase in the region, health officials are warning that is just the tip of the iceberg.
As of presstime, the health unit is reporting 26 confirmed cases in Simcoe-Muskoka, with the majority linked to travel but the virus is spreading in the community. Two of the travel related cases are in Clearview. A couple in their 50s are self-isolating, having contracted the virus during a trip to Austria.
There are six cases in Simcoe Muskoka characterized as community acquired, not linked to travel.
“That really speaks to the importance of people in our community being aware that it is being transmitted in our community and they need to take the precautions that we’ve spoken to in order to safeguard themselves and safeguard others from becoming infected,” said Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit (SMDHU) Medical Officer Dr. Charles Gardner, who has been briefing the media daily.
“As this transmits in the community we will get to the point where there are potentially many others in the community who won’t have an obvious link and our ability to test them all will be limited. The really key thing isn’t so much testing them all, it’s that they home-isolate while they are recovering to avoid infecting others and that they seek medical attention if they are developing severe symptoms.”
He supports the efforts of governments at all levels to take measures to discourage socializing and encourages everyone to follow physical distancing measures to avoid overwhelming the health care system. That means frequent washing of hands, staying home when possible, and maintaining a two-metre distance from others.
“A lot has been done but we need to do more. This is our opportunity now to flatten the curve. This is the point that we need to do it before it becomes well entrenched in our community,” said Gardner. “Now is the time to be considering such action.”
He said the community has to be careful about lifting restrictions too soon.
“If the majority of the population still hasn’t been infected, still doesn’t have immunity, then it can easily come back so it can be a difficult and long drawn out process for us that waxes and wanes,” said Gardner.
Gardner said it is clear that there are more cases than those confirmed because there always is. “There’s always this tip of the iceberg phenomenon with surveillance. You know there are others that you just don’t have tests on. They could be waiting for results, or have a very mild, or no symptoms, and haven’t come forward for testing. It can be as many as 10 times as many,” he said.
Their modeling for this region has shown that worst case scenario over the course of the virus, 50 per cent of the population could be infected at some point during the pandemic. By implementing early physical distancing and public health measures, that can be reduced by as much as 95 per cent, according to a model developed by the Dalla Lana School of Public Health at University of Toronto. Gardner explained that lessons learned from the spread of influenza is that there could be more than one peak, with the virus declining in the summer months and spreading again in the fall.
“Very understandably, there is a high degree of anxiety about this pandemic and how it’s affecting their community,” said Gardner, adding that the health unit will follow up with all people who have had contact with a known confirmed case and that people should be wary of misinformation posted online.
He is advising people who develop any symptoms at all, even a cold, respiratory infection, or a mild sore throat, that they need to be isolated in their home for 14 days.
“I think people at this point onward need to be thinking in a very precautionary way to protect others, and avoid others becoming infected,” said Gardner.

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